US Presidential Election 2028

The US Presidential Election is arguably the most significant political event for global financial markets. The outcome influences fiscal policy, trade relations, regulatory environments, and market sentiment worldwide.

Why US Elections Move Markets

The United States has:

The world's largest economy (~$28 trillion GDP)

The global reserve currency (USD)

The largest stock market by capitalization

Significant influence on global trade policy

Presidential elections create uncertainty, and markets hate uncertainty. This leads to increased volatility before, during, and after elections.

Historical Market Performance

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Election Year Patterns:

Markets tend to be flat or slightly negative in the first half

Volatility increases as election approaches

Sharp moves occur on election night

Strong rallies often follow regardless of winner

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By Party Win:

Both Republican and Democratic victories have historically led to positive post-election returns. Markets respond more to certainty than to specific policies.

Key Sectors to Watch

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Republican Win Scenario:

Energy (oil & gas): Often positive on deregulation

Financials: Benefit from lighter regulation

Defense: Increased spending expectations

Healthcare: Mixed on policy approach

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Democratic Win Scenario:

Clean energy: Renewable energy investments

Healthcare: Varies by specific policies

Infrastructure: Increased spending

Technology: Complex regulatory outlook

2028 Election Context

Key factors for 2028:

Economic conditions leading up to the election

Incumbent vs challenger dynamics

Key policy debates (taxation, trade, crypto regulation)

International relations and trade policy

Trading the Election

The highest volatility occurs: 1. During primaries and party conventions 2. After major debates 3. Election week 4. First 100 days of new administration